My sportsbook takes action on politics from time to time. For example, I made money betting on the 2005 Papal Conclave, and afterwards, experienced the worst case of "should have bet more" bettors remorse of my life.
A handful of candidates remained when I placed my bet. Just days before the announcement, CNN ran a story confidently predicting that Ratzinger would be named. They cited several unnamed sources close to the conclave. I thought to myself, "CNN is a credible source, and they sound extremely confident about this,,, I might as well take Ratzinger while my book is still offering the action."
Just before betting my entire account balance on Ratzinger, a thought crossed my mind, "What if the sportsbooks are leaking that information to CNN get the action on Ratzinger??? Maybe I'll just make a conservative bet."
STUPID! As if bookies are out there leaking information to CNN about the Papal Conclave!!! And CNN either trusts the information enough to put it on the air, or are themselves on the payroll!
So in my mind, of all the interest in the Papal Conclave, no group wielded as much power with mainstream media as the sportsbook lobby! I must have assumed that the action on the Pope was reaching Super Bowl proportions.
So anyway, you can log onto the website right now and bet on who you think will win the 2008 Presidential election. Here are the current odds:
Hillary Clinton - 1-2
Rudolph Giuliani - 4.5-1
Barack Obama - 5.5-1
Mitt Romney - 8-1
Ron Paul - 12-1
Mike Huckabee - 18-1
Al Gore - 20-1
John Edwards - 22-1
Fred Thompson - 25-1
John McCain - 33-1
Bill Richardson - 100-1
Obviously the first thing that jumps out is the amount by which Hillary Clinton is favored. I don't know much about politics, but I do know that if I go to a racetrack and see 11 healthy horses waiting at the starting gate, and one of them is only paying fifty cents on the dollar, somebody thinks they know something.
Is smart money taking Obama at 5.5-1?
Is serious money taking Huckabee at 18-1? (it was 25-1 last week)
Last week, I took Huckabee to win the Republican nomination at 8-1, since then the odds have moved to 4-1.
And Giuliani is the Republican favorite? Are you kidding me? "America's Mayor"? Giuliani's claim to fame is being the mayor of New York on 9/11. Was he was pulling people out of the wreckage?
This guy is a senior adviser on Giuliani's foreign policy team.
And how about Ron Paul getting some serious respect at 12-1? He's getting better odds than John Edwards.
And as for Romney, I don't know anything about the Mormon faith other that the fact that when I went to Vegas for a national training session in 2002, the guys I met from our Salt Lake City office all had three things in common, 1) They were under the age of 25, 2) They were Mormon, and 3) Not one of them had less than two children, (they were also very nice, and didn't drink, so I guess that makes five)
Someone's gotta represent the Grand Old Party next year... why not Huckabee? That guy is an American's American.
6 comments:
i love the mccain bet, i like the huckabee bet. i like the obama bet. hillary's campaign is imploding, and im going to owe a certain fat fuck 100 dollars.
by the way, huckabee is the scariest of all the republican candidates. did you know that in 1992 he said that people with AIDS should be quarantined? I mean, I know that sounds like one of those crazy Republican hate emails that aren't true, but are just used to spread a Republican lie- but he said that, man. He said it to the associated press. I swear.
After this President not only will I not trust the chosen candidate of the religious right ever again- I may not trust religious people ever again. Huckabee is total nut job. An American's American.
dan quisenberry
the last comment should not have been posted under maura's name. she's all pissed now.
right now she's pissed about 3 things mainly-
1) She HATES the McCain bet- and doesn't want people emailing her when they bet the farm on a turncoat like McCain.
2) She says that Huckabees comment about AIDS was taken out of context, "and somehow everyone seems to convieniently forget to put the words 'full blown' in front of AIDS.
3) She's pissed because now she knows that not only do i regularly check her email, but that I'm too lazy to log out of her account when I post on my "bullshit friend's bull shit blogs."
- dan the man
I like the O'Bama bet, and I like the Huckabee bet. Edwards at 22-1 is interesting. If something crazy happens between O'Bama and Hillary and they end up taking each other out in a Mexican stand-off gone bad, he could be the one standing. But, I think O'Bama is the smart money.
Hey man, it was 1992. I realize you were probably 7 at the time, but back then we didn't have computers. We had gigantic word processors that had handles, but were actually to heavy to carry around. No one knew what AIDS was. Magic immediately retired when he found out he was HIV positive. It was assumed he'd be dead any minute. We didn't know that really rich people could live so long with HIV.
Anyway, I think Huckabee has changed. He's not going to take all the people with AIDS, isolate and lock them up on an island somewhere. That's for the Arabs.
The Edwards bet is sneaky. In theory, you'd think he'd be the Democrat with the easiest time winning a Presidential election - he's got a few things in common with our last two democratic presidents. But instead we're going to have a couple of Ivy League educated minorities out there duking it out to see who gets to battle a pure white honest man's American in a presidential campaign.
If Hillary wins the election and serves two terms, will Chelsea be old enough to run in 2016?
Is there a school of thought that says I throw my life savings on Huckabee, and volunteer for him?
Personally, I'd like to see Steve King on the ballot.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,316574,00.html
"full blown AIDS" and "AIDS" are two totally different diseases ;)
You virgins need sex with girls. Then you need to buy XBOX 360s cuz they are da bomb. Id kick yor ass in Halo. Pussys.
I'm pulling for Ron Paul.
-Barry
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