According to Parade magazine only three out of twenty-four Bachelor/Bachelorette contestants are still married. (Trista and Ryan are one of them) (I take pride in that.) (I was rooting for Ryan.)
Quick notes on this year's bachelor before I get to the handicapping, Sean (29, entrepreneur, former college football player):
1) He's smarter than he looks.
2) He's smarter than he looks.
3) Prior to last week I had no concept of the frequency and intensity of make-out sessions on The Bachelor. Maybe it's a man vs woman thing, but I don't remember Trista having nearly as many. The Bachelor website even has a kiss leaderboard. I remember it being a big deal when Tom Cruise french-kissed Kelly McGillis in Top Gun, but Sean does it at least five times per episode.
4) I kind of feel sorry for Sean because he has reached the point where the remaining contestants all seem to have real feelings for him (or for winning the competition), and he realizes this, so whenever he cuts one, he knows he is truly hurting her. Cindy hates that I feel sorry for him because he brought this upon himself (and she's right, he totally leads them on, but I can't help feeling bad.) And I feel bad for the women too because they're in such a vulnerable position, but I suppose at this point any woman who goes on The Bachelor knows what she's in for (including the dehumanization that i'm about to do)
5) That said, Sean is not the least bit shy about having long, deep, passionate make out sessions with multiple girls in the same night. At the end of last week's episode he made out with three or four women during the cocktail hour.
To say that I'm fairly adept at picking who Sean is going to cut would be akin to saying Barack Obama is fairly adept at public speaking (for proof of this, ask Cindy while she's cooking me the two breakfasts she owes from last night's Bachelor betting.)
OK, so here's what you've all been waiting for. I will handicap the remaining field, and to to unravel some of the mystery behind the odds, I'll provide a short write up and rank them 1-4 in a few categories:
(Note: The rankings are by favorability, 4 is best, 1 is worst. For craziness: 4 is least crazy, and 1 is craziest. And I acknowledge that my rankings are extremely shallow and based on very limited knowledge, but all I've got is the information provided by the show.)
Desiree (26, Bridal Stylist) - 2-1
Desiree and Sean clearly have chemistry, and if Sean decides he doesn't want to propose to any of these women, Desiree's backstory about growing up in poverty makes her the sentimental favorite and would make Sean look like a good guy for picking her and then quietly breaking up with her a few months later. (I thought about dropping her to 3-1 after seeing the preview of next week's show where Sean almost gets into a fistfight with her brother, but Des remains the favorite at 2-1.)
Looks: 2
Personality: 4
Craziness: 4
Physical Chemistry: 2 (5 makeouts)
Total Score: 12
Ashlee (32, Personal Organizer) - 3-1
Arguably the best looking contestant remaining, and doesn't seem too crazy, but definitely crazy. The way she stood up on the chair and shouted "I love you Sean!!" during dinner on the beach date was probably weird even by The Bachelor's relaxed standards (and would---of course---be an absolute no-questions-asked dealbreaker on a real second date.) And then later they were making out and she stopped for a second and said, "I love you." To which he responded, "I know you do."
She and Sean are both from Texas, but she's three years older, which wipes out the Texas advantage. (And I feel like Texas is similar to Islamic nations in terms of wanting their women to get started especially young.) Also the way Ashlee built up her bombshell confession at the last dinner made me think she was going confess to something crazy like starring in adult films as a teen, but instead she just said she was married at 17 and divorced by 19. She was a confused kid who had been abandoned by her parents and fell into the arms of some dumbass and quickly came to her senses, big deal. If anything I gave her credit for getting out of the marriage. (But again, maybe stuff like this is a big deal in Texas.)
Looks: 4
Personality: 2
Craziness: 2
Physical Chemistry: 3 (6 makeouts)
Total Score: 11
Catherine (26, Graphic Designer) - 4-1
Looks: 3
Personality: 3
Craziness: 2
Physical Chemistry: 1 (4 makeouts)
Total Score: 9
Lindsay (24, Substitute Teacher) - 6-1
Lindsay has kind of a big tattoo on the inside of her wrist and kind of a huge tattoo on her foot. She supposedly showed up to Episode One wearing a wedding gown. And Sean's gotta be wondering why she's still substitute teaching: she says she likes to draw, so you'd think her looks alone could get her a full time gig teaching elementary school art somewhere. There's a very strong physical chemistry between her and Sean (she's the leader in makeouts) and maybe that means more to the former football player than anything else. I can see her surviving one more round, but I can't picture Sean getting down on one knee and staring at that big wrist-tattoo and knowing his parents are watching and then sliding a ring on her finger.
Looks: 1
Personality: 1
Craziness: 2
Physical Chemistry: 4 (7 makeouts)
Total Score: 8
...
While I cannot guarantee results, I think you can feel confident using these odds for guidance in your Bachelor betting opportunities.
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